When Algorithms Decide: Lessons from the Aged Care Assessment Debacle for the NDIS

NDIS participants have been following the Senate Legislation Committee inquiry into the Support at Home program very closely¹ and for good reason. What has emerged through that inquiry is not just a debate about aged care. It is a real-time case study of what can go wrong² when major assessment reforms are shonky, introduced without sufficient preparation. And many of the design features are similar to those proposed for the new NDIS Support Needs Assessments³, due to commence in July 2026, less than 3 months from now.

What has the Aged Care ‘Support at Home’ Inquiry told us?

At the centre of the aged care controversy is the new assessment tool, introduced to determine how much funding older Australians receive. The intention was to create a more consistent way of assessing need.

But the evidence coming out of the inquiry tells a different story.

In plain terms, the system works like this: an assessor asks a structured set of questions, enters the responses into a digital tool, and an algorithm produces a score. That score determines the person’s funding level. The critical issue is that once the score is generated, it cannot be changed.

Even if an assessor believes, or has health professional evidence, that the outcome is clearly wrong, they are not allowed to override it⁴.

During the inquiry, departmental officials confirmed there is “no discretionary element” in the process. While an override function existed during earlier testing phases, it was removed before the system went live⁵. That means professional judgement, once central to these decisions, has effectively been taken out of the equation.

What were the consequences for older people who underwent the assessment?

The consequences were, and are, felt strongly. Evidence presented to the inquiry suggests the assessment tool is repeatedly underestimating people’s needs⁶. Older Australians, including those with serious or degenerative conditions, have reportedly had their support reduced⁷. At the same time, requests for reviews have surged⁸. For many people relying on care, those delays have deeply impacted access to support⁹.

There are also concerns about transparency. Neither assessors nor participants can clearly see how the algorithm converts answers into funding levels. It is, in effect, a “black box”.

That combination of no transparency, no assessor discretion, and limited ability to challenge decisions, has shaken confidence in the system and raised fundamental questions about fairness and accountability.

For many in the disability community, this all feels very familiar.

What are the similarities between aged care and the proposed NDIS assessments?

NDIS New Framework Planning¹⁰ Rules will introduce a Support Needs Assessment that closely mirrors the aged care approach. Under the proposal, participants would complete a structured assessment using tools such as the PECQ and I-CAN. That assessment would generate scores, and these scores would determine their overall budget. These assessment tools have not been researched or validated for use together¹¹, in the NDIS, despite a call for testing and a call for more transparency in how assessment scores will inform budget-setting, from a new NDIS Joint Standing Committee report¹².

The assessments represent a major shift in how the NDIS operates. Under the new model, the assessment will drive the budget¹³.

The parallels with aged care are hard to ignore.

First, there is the same risk of a “black box” system¹⁴. Participants are already asking: how will assessment scores translate into funding? At present, there is very little public information. Participants have told us they are concerned they may receive budgets disconnected from actual support needs, and that multiple, complex and overlapping disabilities will not be adequately recognised.

Second, there is the issue of snapshot assessments. Under the proposed New Framework Planning Rules, the NDIS assessors cannot consider participant provided allied health or other evidence, in determining support needs. There is a real risk that support needs will be missed, because the system did not see the full picture.

Third, there is the question of professional judgement. In aged care, assessors have effectively been reduced to data collectors. We do not yet know how NDIS assessor workforce quality and standards will be monitored and assured¹⁵.

Finally, there is the issue of review and appeal. The aged care experience shows that relying on after-the-fact reviews is slow and burdensome. If NDIS participants cannot directly check and challenge the assessment that determines their funding, errors risk becoming locked in¹⁶. The proposed New Framework Planning Rules will remove the ability for the Administrative Review Tribunal to adjust the participant’s support budget.

What lessons need to be learnt for the future of NDIS Support Needs Assessments?

The aged care inquiry has provided a clear cautionary tale.

The lesson is not to stop reform, but to slow down and get it right.

The proposed NDIS Framing Planning Rules have not yet been fully released for public consultation. Given the scale of the change, that is a significant concern. Every Australian Counts is calling for a full release of the NDIS New Framework Planning and potential revised Section 10 Rules, before they are tabled in parliament. New assessment and budget setting processes must be transparent and built with the community.

Take action now

This is a critical moment for the future of the NDIS. We’ve seen what happens when rushed reforms ignore lived experience. We cannot let the same mistakes happen again.

Here’s how you can take action:

Contact your local MP
Tell them the NDIS community is deeply concerned about rushed Support Needs Assessments and the risks of a “black box” system. Ask them to push for full transparency, proper testing, and genuine consultation before any changes go ahead. Find your local federal MP here.

Join the campaign
Sign up to Every Australian Counts to stay informed and be part of coordinated national action. The more voices we have, the harder we are to ignore.

Share your story
Your experience matters. Whether you’re a participant, family member, or support worker, your story can help show decision-makers what’s really at stake. Share your story here.

Spread the word
Share this information with your networks, community groups, and on social media. Change happens when we stand together.

Together, we built the NDIS. Together, we can protect it.

Need support right now?

We know these discussions can be stressful and overwhelming. You’re not alone.

If you or someone you know needs support, you can contact:

Lifeline – 13 11 14 (24/7 crisis support)
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Beyond Blue – 1300 22 4636 (24/7)
Headspace – 1800 650 890 (for young people)
13YARN – 13 92 76 (24/7 support for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people)

If you are in immediate danger, call 000.