Heidi La Paglia Reid

Marking the launch of the notorious Productivity Roundtable this week, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese declared the NDIS would be a focus for budget tightening, claiming that “40%” of Australians are on the scheme. [1] It was a powerful soundbite, but utterly false. As of June 2025, there were 669,111 active NDIS participants, less than 2.5% of the population. Around 288,000 of these participants were children under 15, just 8-9% of all Australian children. A far cry from 40%. [2]

This falsehood follows the familiar and damaging idea that there are “too many autistic children” on the NDIS, and that they are the reason the scheme is under pressure. This rhetoric is not only misleading, it is harmful. It scapegoats Autistic children and their families, painting them as a budgetary burden rather than children with rights, needs, and futures worth investing in.

The Real Drivers of Cost

The reality is clear. Autistic children are not driving NDIS costs. What is driving costs is the explosion of administrative churn, endless reassessments, and ballooning legal expenses [3] as the NDIA fights and polices participants through tribunals and courts. Billions are wasted every year on bureaucracy, consultants, and adversarial processes, while families struggle to secure supports even for the most basic needs.

And yet, instead of addressing this mismanagement, governments choose the easier narrative: blame Autism.

“Thriving Kids”

At the National Press Club on Wednesday (the same week), Health Minister Mark Butler announced the government’s new “Thriving Kids” program. [4] He explained that the program is intended to move children with “developmental delay” and “mild to moderate autism” (his words) out of the NDIS and into Medicare-funded services. Among the initiatives included, he indicated that it would block funding providers to roll out programs, such as the highly controversial, ‘Inklings.’ More supports are always welcome, but the programs being promoted are not evidence-based, nor are they supported by Autistic people or families.

For two years, Autistic people, families, and advocates have expressed consistent concerns that Inklings is not what it claims to be. [5] While presented as evidence-based and neuro-affirming, closer examination reveals troubling implications. The protocols used in Inklings are designed to “reduce disability associated with autism” in infants by training parents to redirect or suppress Autistic traits such as “hand flapping”. The underlying assumption seems to be that if children are put through such programs early, they will not need the NDIS later. 

This is fundamentally flawed logic. Autism is a lifelong neurotype. Reducing or hiding Autistic traits does not make a child less Autistic. It only makes them less likely to be recognised, understood, and supported. In reality, these approaches encourage children to mask their autism, and the evidence is clear: masking leads to burnout, poor mental health, and, in the worst cases, suicidality.

Despite minimal evidence on long-term outcomes, a disregard for meaningful consultation, and a focus on “normalising” Autistic children rather than supporting them, the government has committed millions to expand Inklings. This is not affirmation — it is assimilation, and it risks serious harm to our children from infancy. 

Not Co-Design. Not Evidence Based. Not Safe.

Taken together, these announcements show a worrying trend: misinformation from the highest levels of government, exclusion of people with disability from key roundtables, and investment in programs that erase neurodivergence instead of supporting it. Taken together, these announcements show a worrying trend: misinformation from the highest levels of government, exclusion of people with disability from key roundtables, and investment in programs that erase neurodivergence instead of supporting it. They also signal a dangerous shift back to block funding and centralised delivery models – a step away from individualised supports and the principle of choice and control that was meant to sit at the heart of the NDIS.

The government has committed $2 billion to “Thriving Kids” – money that comes directly at the expense of children’s individualised NDIS supports. For families, this will mean real cuts: therapies, aids, and supports that children rely on will be stripped away and replaced with block-funded programs designed and delivered without their input. Support needs will not be met. Instead, families will be funnelled into pre-determined programs that may not suit their child, with no flexibility to adapt as needs change.

Block funding undermines autonomy. It funnels money into large providers and standardised programs, recreating the very broken systems of the past that the NDIS was designed to replace.

This is not co-design. This is not evidence-based. And it is certainly not conducive to “thriving” children.

What Needs to Change

Autistic children are not the problem. Scapegoating them to balance budgets is cruel and short-sighted. If the government is serious about sustainability, it must:

• Confront the real cost drivers: administration, consultants, and legal waste.
• Maintain NDIS supports for all children with permanent disabilities  
• Independently evaluate programs like Inklings before rolling them out.
• Commit to genuine co-design with neurodivergent people and families.
• Invest in supports that affirm neurodivergence, not erase it.

The NDIS was built on the principles of choice, control, and respect. Those principles are now under serious threat. It’s time to turn the conversation back to the truth: Autistic children don’t break the budget, broken systems do.

References:

[1] Caisley, O (2025, Aug 19). Productivity summit begins with a warning on NDIS spending, ABC News.